When the coronavirus pandemic hit in the spring, Southern Californians could point to a silver lining of free-flowing freeways and near-empty thoroughfares.
Not anymore.
A new study by the Southern California Association of Governments, a six-county planning agency, documented a massive drop in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that since mid-May has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Making matters worse, the matching plunge in bus and train ridership during the last two weeks of March and throughout April is reversing at a much slower pace than vehicle travel, foreshadowing a post-pandemic traffic-and-smog apocalypse.
Traffic is back
“What we saw in April, and especially by middle of May, was a substantial drop in vehicle miles traveled on the freeways and on arterials (highways),” began Kome Ajise, SCAG executive director, in an Aug. 13 interview.
“Now, even though we are still dealing with the virus, we are seeing traffic coming back,” Ajise added. “Now, we are in the range of a little less than 10% down on the freeway system,” he said.
The agency is reporting that traffic, which was down 80% in mid-April from January, has gained back 70% of its volume by early August. In short, gridlock is making a comeback.
Caltrans engineers from District 7, an area encompassing Los Angeles and Ventura counties, reported an 11% drop in freeway miles traveled at the end of July, much less than decreases measured in March and April, as vehicle travel closes the gap. Vehicle miles began increasing in mid-May as coronavirus-related lockdowns started to lift, and have continued going up, Caltrans reported.
The three worst bottlenecks occurred on the eastbound 10 Freeway at Los Angeles Street; the northbound 5 Freeway at Pasadena Avenue and the southbound 405 Freeway at Howard Hughes Parkway, Caltrans reported in an emailed response.
Freeway delays in the two counties, also measured by Caltrans, fell 82% in April from January. Delays in July were down 58% compared to the start of the year.
Cars are the social-distancing choice
People are driving to work, but also, to the grocery store and to outdoor dining restaurants, not to mention drive-thru fast food lanes where the customer never leaves the car and makes minimal contact with the server.
With the single-passenger car being used as a social distancing tool to prevent exposure to the potentially deadly coronavirus, it has become the movement mode of choice, no matter the destination.
“Most of the trips made in any region are typically not necessarily work trips. It is commuting, yes, but also people going to stores and medical appointments,” Ajise said.
The numbers in the SCAG report reflect what most motorists knew, that traffic had become very light as people worked from home during stay-at-home orders and while schools were closed.
VMT fell 80% in April as compared to January, with the sharpest declines in Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties, SCAG reported. Freeway jam-ups disappeared. Multi-laned avenues and boulevards, what SCAG calls arterials, could be crossed on foot — no problem.
Restaurant delivery driver Bart Reed, who also heads up The Transit Coalition, a nonprofit transportation educational group, has noticed the uptick in traffic.
Last week, the eastbound 134 Freeway near Glendale and Burbank turned into the usual parking lot about 4 p.m. weekdays — reminiscent of pre-pandemic days.
“It was close to stop-and-go. A month or two ago you could do that same trip in five minutes,” he said. “Before, you’d have guys pushing you out of the way at 70 mph. Now, you are maybe going 20 mph and it is starting to look like rush hour again.”
Denny Zane, executive director of MoveLA, a group that studies transportation and transit solutions, said he was driving his brother to a doctor’s office in San Bernardino County two weeks ago and the trip from Los Angeles took two hours.
“The freeway jam-up was like pre-pandemic times. I was traveling on the 10 Freeway to get to Colton where he lives,” said Zane, who grew up in San Bernardino.
Trucks on freeways fell less than 30% in the early pandemic months and have climbed back to just 2% below pre-COVID-19 numbers, SCAG reported.
“While we were all staying at home, trucks were still moving,” Ajise said. “They are doing deliveries.”
Rail, bus ridership slow to recover
More cars on the freeways is due in part to a lot less people taking buses and rail. SCAG reported transit ridership had dropped on average between 65% and 85% depending on the county, with the biggest dip in Orange County at 80%. LA Metro bus and train ridership fell 68%, keeping about one-third of mostly essential worker riders. Metrolink, the cross-county commuter rail, saw ridership plummet 90% in April and May as compared to the same months in 2019.
In July and early August, transit agencies across Southern California were seeing passengers come back, albeit much slower than cars. For example, LA Metro, the third-largest bus and rail agency in the country, saw combined bus and train ridership go up and down dramatically in the past six months.
In February, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Agency averaged 1.2 million riders every week day, as compared to 363,803 riders in April, a drop of more than 800,000 riders. Since then, the numbers have climbed steadily to 546,210 daily riders in the week ending Aug. 1.
Metrolink ridership — with only 3,966 daily boardings in April — has steadily grown to 6,756 as of Aug. 18, said Scott Johnson, spokesman. “About 71% of those riding in April identified themselves as ‘essential’ workers with 39% as healthcare employees, while others worked in transportation, logistics, food, manufacturing and financial services,” he said.
Bus ridership, pulled predominantly from lower socio-economic groups and those without access to a car, is creeping back quicker than rail. At LA Metro, average weekday bus riders grew from 269,382 in April to 416,133 as of Aug. 1.
Riverside Transit Agency, which operates 39 fixed-routes and nine express or commuter-type bus routes, dropped 73% in April 2020 verses the previous year. By the end of July, the reduction fell to about 57%, reported Bradley Weaver, RTA spokesperson.
The bus agency, like dozens in the region, requires passengers and bus operators to wear masks and has instituted aggressive disinfecting measures.
“We are hopeful that this upward trend will continue as we foster our commitment to customer safety and efficient travel during these challenging times,” Weaver wrote in an email.
The following agencies and cities with bus lines saw drops in the 70% to 85% range in April as compared to the same time in 2019, as noted in the SCAG report:
- Anaheim Transportation Network (down 79.4%)
- Antelope Valley Transit Authority (down 77.3%)
- City of Redondo Beach (down 85.2%)
- City of Glendale ( down 85.6%)
- City of Gardena (down 70.7%)
- Long Beach Transit (down 86.6%)
- Montebello Bus Lines (down 77.1%);
- Orange County Transportation Authority (down 76.2%)
- Santa Clarita Transit (down 81.4%)
- Victor Valley Transit Authority (down 71.2%)
A few transit agencies saw drops much less, including: Omnitrans in San Bernardino County (64.8% decrease); Foothill Transit in the San Gabriel Valley (62.1% decrease) and city of Pasadena (67.2% decrease).
Omnitrans has seen a slow return, from a low of 326,182 riders in April to 341,503 in July, the agency reported. A survey by the agency found that 60% of customers rode the buses to get to work, wrote Nicole Ramos, spokesperson.
Can bus, rail bounce back?
Will transit ridership return once the pandemic is over? That is a question that is predicated on a lot of factors but more importantly, could negatively affect traffic flow on freeways and result in increasingly bad air, as tailpipe emissions play a significant role in smog.
“This is a worry more than a question. We are not sure how many transit industries will survive this,” Ajise said. “Some can’t continue the level of operational cost with low level of ridership.”
Zane said once traffic gets even worse and if the pandemic slows or is gone, people will consider alternatives to single-passenger cars.
“The experience sitting in traffic will drive people to take the transit option,” he said.
