July 8, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

By Christian Edwards, Adrienne Vogt, Laura Smith-Spark and Matt Meyer, CNN

Updated 5:38 p.m. ET, July 8, 2023

What we covered here

Ukraine deserves NATO membership, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, following talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the alliance's key summit that starts Tuesday in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The summit will not yet result in Ukraine's admission to the alliance, a US official said Friday, but support for Kyiv and its eventual membership bid top the agenda.
On the 500th day of Russia's war in Ukraine, Kyiv says its counteroffensive is still developing slowly. US and Ukrainian leaders hope adding controversial cluster munitions to the arsenal will help break through Russia's defenses.
Local officials said a Russian attack killed at least eight people in the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman on Saturday, while the Russian border region of Belgorod experienced heavy shelling.

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3:35 a.m. ET, July 8, 2023

Cluster munitions going to Ukraine have low "dud rates" and will help maintain ammo supply, Pentagon says

From CNN's Haley Britzky and Michael Conte

The US Defense Department defended the decision to send controversial Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICMs), also known as cluster munitions, to Ukraine, citing the lower failure rates of the weapons than the Russian versions, as well as Ukraine’s commitment to "responsible use" of them.

“The Ukrainian government has offered us assurances in writing on the responsible use of DPICM’s, including that they will not use the rounds in civilian populated urban environments, and that they will record where they use these rounds, which will simplify later de-mining efforts,” said Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl at a press briefing.

Kahl said he discussed the issue with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, and the US will increase its support to Ukraine’s "post-conflict de-mining efforts" on top of the $95 million already committed.

Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine will "ensure that the Ukrainian military has sufficient artillery ammunition for many months to come," Kahl added.

Kahl reiterated the US is not providing older cluster munition variants with high "dud rates."

“Many of those studies that have been referenced, at least the ones that I've seen in the press, were based on testing completed in the 1980s,” he said. “And many of the DPICMs of those variants have since been demilitarized. We're not providing those variants of DPICMs to Ukraine. Instead, we'll be providing our most modern DPICMs with dud rates assessed to be under 2.35%, demonstrated through five comprehensive tests conducted by the Department of Defense between 1998 and 2020.”

Cluster munitions are banned by more than 100 countries, not including the US and Ukraine, because they scatter “bomblets” across large areas that can fail to explode on impact and can pose a long-term risk to anyone who encounters them, similar to landmines.

3:35 a.m. ET, July 8, 2023

Pentagon announces it is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine in latest equipment drawdown

From CNN's Haley Britzky

The Pentagon building in Arlington, Virginia, on April 21. Tom Brenner/Bloomberg/Getty Images

US President Joe Biden's administration officially announced it was sending cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of the 42nd drawdown of equipment from the Defense Department.

A release on Friday said the administration was providing "additional artillery systems and ammunition, including highly effective and reliable dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), on which the Administration conducted extensive consultations with Congress and our Allies and partners."

In separate statement, Biden said he had formally directed the drawdown of up to $800 million in defense articles and services to provide assistance to Ukraine.

In total, the US has provided more than $41.3 billion in security aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began last year.

Kyiv issues thanks: Ukraine is grateful for the "timely, broad and much-needed" defense package, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.

In a message on Twitter, Zelensky praised the US for taking "decisive steps that bring Ukraine closer to victory over the enemy, and democracy to victory over dictatorship."

"The expansion of Ukraine's defense capabilities will provide new tools for the de-occupation of our land and bringing peace closer," he said.

CNN's Allie Malloy, Victoria Butenko and Radina Gigova contributed reporting to this post.

3:35 a.m. ET, July 8, 2023

Western officials haven't seen signs of Wagner or nukes in Belarus, but are monitoring ahead of NATO summit

From CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood

In the wake of the attempted uprising by Wagner Group forces in Russia, the US and Europe have turned their gaze to an increasingly unpredictable Belarus – a key Russian ally that Western officials fear could give the exiled mercenary troops a new home and serve as a staging ground for Russian nuclear weapons.

But so far, US and European officials have not seen clear signs that either scenario is unfolding. While officials are closely monitoring an apparent military camp that sprung up outside of Minsk following the rebellion in southern Russia, Wagner troops do not appear to have moved into the country en masse.

“It could happen that Wagner PMC decides not to relocate here,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is not even in Belarus, Lukashenko told CNN – he is in Russia, Lukashenko claimed.

And while Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that the facilities in Belarus necessary to store the tactical nuclear weapons would be ready by July 7, Western officials have seen no signs of that, either. Belarus still does not appear to have the proper infrastructure to house the weapons, officials said, and it will likely be months, if not longer, before doing so is even technically feasible.

Available satellite imagery has also not shown any signs of the kind of preparations and security that would be standard at a Russian nuclear facility. Russia has the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, with 4,477 deployed and reserve nuclear warheads, including around 1,900 tactical nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists. It is not clear how many of those Russia is potentially planning to deploy to Belarus.

“We are in this fog of Russian mirrors. What actions will Putin take? We don’t know,” said Max Bergmann, the director of Russian and European studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Putin does not need tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus to use those weapons,” Bergmann added. “But it is concerning to the US that tactical nuclear weapons could potentially be co-located in Belarus with Wagner fighters. That said, it seems there is a long way to go before we would even get there.”

Still, Lukashenko’s close relationship with Putin, and the unexpected role he played in quelling the Wagner rebellion, has left intelligence analysts vigilant about what could come next and is a key topic of discussion among NATO allies ahead of next week’s leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. And some US officials are also concerned that Putin could make an announcement related to Russia’s presence in Belarus during the summit.

Read more here.